Nifty Trend | Weekly Expiry | 28 March 2019

MARKET SUMMARY | NIFTY TREND | WEEKLY EXPIRY


Nifty trend in the last weekly expiry has been trading sideways with a positive bias. We saw buying coming in at 11500 and selling at 11550 levels. Overall, it ended the week with a positive gain of 1.5%.

As we move ahead into the last weekly expiry of March 2019, 11500 will remain to be a strong support level. Unless it is broken decisively, we can expect Nifty to continue its uptrend.

So, what would be the probability of a positive Nifty trend in the last Weekly Expiry as of28 March 2019? Let us look at the future Nifty levels using current data available and technical indicators.


OPEN INTEREST DATA | NIFTY TREND

nifty trend weekly expiry 28 march 2019 open interest data
Click on Image for a larger view

If I look at the Open Interest data, I can derive information that maximum Put writing has happened at 11000 followed by 11500. Maximum Put writing is seen at 10600 and 10700 Strike price.

What is Open Interest suggesting?


This is suggesting that 11500 may not be broken and we may see strong buy coming back if Nifty dips below these levels. On the upper side, 11600 will act as strong resistance and we may see profit booking at these levels.

If Nifty manages to hold on to 11600 levels and push above with strong buy, we may see Short covering and Options writing moving to higher strike price which may take Nifty above 10650 levels.


TECHNICAL INDICATOR | NIFTY TREND

nifty trend weekly expiry 28 march 2019 pivot points Fibonacci levels
Click on Image for a larger view

Fib levels/ Pivot points suggest that NIFTY will see major resistance at 11610 levels. If NIFTY sustains above 11610 I will trade on the long side with a target of 11751 and above within this March Expiry.

If NIFTY does not sustain and give a breakout from the above resistance levels, we may see NIFTY heading lower towards its support levels at 11410 and 11364.

I would also be monitoring the Candlestick formation in a 30-minute timeframe for entry and exit confirmation along with 10 Day moving average Indicator.


FII/DII BUYING ACTIVITY | NIFTY TREND

nifty trend weekly expiry 28 march 2019 DII FII buying activity
Click on Image for a larger view

We continue to see strong buying trend from FII over the last 10-15 trading sessions. As long as FII keeps infusing Capital into the markets, the probability of Market falling is low.

On the other hand, we did see a lot of selling by DII’s to counter the buying effect. This trend is likely to reverse in a few days time and DII could also become Net buyers.

CONCLUSION | NIFTY TREND | WEEKLY EXPIRY | 28 MARCH 2019


This market is indicating higher probability of continuation of the uptrend movement. Any dips in the 11450-11480 can be used as an opportunity to enter with a target of 10610 and 10750+ levels.

If you are trading in NIFTY Index, keep an optimum Stop loss at 11400 levels and use proper position size as per your risk appetite. If you are trading with Options, 11550 – 11600CE MARCH can be accumulated at every dip to ride the trend.

If you like this post, do share it with fellow traders and please share your probable NIFTY targets for this expiry in the Comment section below!


DISCLAIMER: The Nifty trend analysis above is intended for general Information and Educational purposes only. It is not a Buy/Sell recommendation. Please use your own risk management techniques. Any loss incurred from following my personal analysis will solely be at your own risk